Banco do Brasil SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
26.09%
increased by 0.14%
1 Week
26.29%
increased by 0.34%
1 Month
26.89%
increased by 0.94%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1992 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9678 | 3.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0723 | 5.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8881 | 42.59*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.2871 | -4.48*** |
| γ2 | 0.4294 | 3.23*** |
| γ3 | -0.2073 | -1.79* |
| γ4 | 0.1091 | 1.59 |
| γ5 | -0.1031 | -2.10** |
| γ6 | 0.1485 | 3.18*** |
| γ7 | -0.1397 | -2.93*** |
| γ8 | 0.0310 | 0.51 |
| γ9 | 0.0370 | 0.45 |
| γ10 | -0.0108 | -0.15 |
Persistence:
0.960
Half-life:
17 days
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