V-Lab
Banco do Brasil SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
34.03%
increased by 0.72%
1 Week
33.69%
increased by 0.38%
1 Month
32.62%
decreased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1992 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9759 | 3.33*** |
| αARCH | 0.0722 | 5.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8886 | 42.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.2819 | -4.44*** |
| γ2 | 0.4224 | 3.20*** |
| γ3 | -0.2052 | -1.77* |
| γ4 | 0.1085 | 1.57 |
| γ5 | -0.1030 | -2.09** |
| γ6 | 0.1508 | 3.23*** |
| γ7 | -0.1465 | -3.11*** |
| γ8 | 0.0375 | 0.65 |
| γ9 | 0.0394 | 0.49 |
| γ10 | -0.0186 | -0.26 |
0.961
Persistence17d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9759 | 3.33*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0722 | 5.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8886 | 42.91*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.2819 | -4.44*** |
| γ2 | 0.4224 | 3.20*** |
| γ3 | -0.2052 | -1.77* |
| γ4 | 0.1085 | 1.57 |
| γ5 | -0.1030 | -2.09** |
| γ6 | 0.1508 | 3.23*** |
| γ7 | -0.1465 | -3.11*** |
| γ8 | 0.0375 | 0.65 |
| γ9 | 0.0394 | 0.49 |
| γ10 | -0.0186 | -0.26 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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