V-Lab
Banco do Brasil SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
25.37%
decreased by 0.17%
1 Week
25.63%
increased by 0.09%
1 Month
26.43%
increased by 0.89%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1992 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 17 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9675 | 3.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0720 | 5.70*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8888 | 42.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.2867 | -4.49*** |
| γ2 | 0.4288 | 3.23*** |
| γ3 | -0.2070 | -1.79* |
| γ4 | 0.1087 | 1.58 |
| γ5 | -0.1027 | -2.09** |
| γ6 | 0.1489 | 3.20*** |
| γ7 | -0.1414 | -2.98*** |
| γ8 | 0.0327 | 0.55 |
| γ9 | 0.0371 | 0.45 |
| γ10 | -0.0121 | -0.17 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
17 days
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