V-Lab
Banco do Brasil SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
59.55%
increased by 4.26%
1 Week
57.85%
increased by 2.56%
1 Month
52.19%
decreased by 3.10%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 09:01 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 17, 1992 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9802 | 3.34*** |
| αARCH | 0.0715 | 5.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8896 | 43.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.2787 | -4.44*** |
| γ2 | 0.4179 | 3.20*** |
| γ3 | -0.2035 | -1.77* |
| γ4 | 0.1081 | 1.57 |
| γ5 | -0.1031 | -2.09** |
| γ6 | 0.1522 | 3.27*** |
| γ7 | -0.1502 | -3.22*** |
| γ8 | 0.0414 | 0.74 |
| γ9 | 0.0392 | 0.50 |
| γ10 | -0.0209 | -0.30 |
0.961
Persistence18d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9802 | 3.34*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0715 | 5.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8896 | 43.12*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -0.2787 | -4.44*** |
| γ2 | 0.4179 | 3.20*** |
| γ3 | -0.2035 | -1.77* |
| γ4 | 0.1081 | 1.57 |
| γ5 | -0.1031 | -2.09** |
| γ6 | 0.1522 | 3.27*** |
| γ7 | -0.1502 | -3.22*** |
| γ8 | 0.0414 | 0.74 |
| γ9 | 0.0392 | 0.50 |
| γ10 | -0.0209 | -0.30 |
Persistence:
0.961
Half-life:
18 days
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