V-Lab
Kuaishou Technology Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
129.67%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
129.67%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
129.67%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:29 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 87 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3298 | 4.12*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9920 | 1.15 |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 6.2492 | 0.09 |
| γ2 | -8.8520 | -0.19 |
| γ3 | 4.7911 | 0.17 |
| γ4 | -6.0764 | -1.11 |
| γ5 | 9.6017 | 1.83* |
| γ6 | -10.0044 | -1.22 |
| γ7 | 8.1464 | 0.80 |
| γ8 | -6.3421 | -0.89 |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
87 days
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