V-Lab
Kuaishou Technology Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
95.65%
decreased by 0.04%
1 Week
96.48%
increased by 0.79%
1 Month
97.57%
increased by 1.88%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2021 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2596 | 5.21*** |
| αARCH | 0.0126 | 0.34 |
| βGARCH | 0.7863 | 1.55 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0338 | -0.07 |
| γ2 | 0.5006 | 0.62 |
| γ3 | -0.7298 | -1.47 |
0.799
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2596 | 5.21*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0126 | 0.34 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7863 | 1.55 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0338 | -0.07 |
| γ2 | 0.5006 | 0.62 |
| γ3 | -0.7298 | -1.47 |
Persistence:
0.799
Half-life:
3 days
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