V-Lab
Kuaishou Technology Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
91.78%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
92.56%
increased by 0.78%
1 Month
93.59%
increased by 1.81%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:44 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2021 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2841 | 5.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.0130 | 0.36 |
| βGARCH | 0.7874 | 1.60 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0291 | 0.06 |
| γ2 | 0.3653 | 0.47 |
| γ3 | -0.6196 | -1.31 |
0.800
Persistence3d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2841 | 5.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0130 | 0.36 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7874 | 1.60 |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0291 | 0.06 |
| γ2 | 0.3653 | 0.47 |
| γ3 | -0.6196 | -1.31 |
Persistence:
0.800
Half-life:
3 days
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