V-Lab
Kuaishou Technology MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
70.89%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
72.09%
increased by 1.02%
1 Month
74.86%
increased by 3.79%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2021 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 66 | |
| αARCH | 0.0460 | 1.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.8918 | 5.96*** |
| γleverage | -0.0460 | -1.03 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 10.0000 | 0.09 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.5884 | 0.13 |
0.915
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0460 | 1.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8918 | 5.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0460 | -1.03 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.09 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.5884 | 0.13 |
Persistence:
0.915
Half-life:
8 days
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