Kuaishou Technology MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
137.33%
1 Week
132.55%
1 Month
118.18%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:25 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 16, 2021 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 66 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0497 | 2.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9184 | 15.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0497 | -2.27** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.6314 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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