V-Lab
Esteem Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
0.38%
1 Week
328,779.34%
1 Month
2,193,896,807,053,604,500,000,000,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 31 | |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | |
| γleverage | 0.0070 | 6,953.00*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0000 | |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0000 | |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.0000 |
0.003
Persistence0d
Half-lifeMF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0070 | 6,953.00*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 |
Persistence:
0.003
Half-life:
0 days
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