V-Lab
Esteem Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
15.65%
1 Week
17.46%
1 Month
17.94%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:57 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to positive returns, rising far more after gains than after losses. This is the reverse of the usual leverage effect, rare among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 46 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4976 | 41.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0088 | 22.90*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.4976 | -41.60*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 1.2971 | 18.78*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0000 | 0.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.258
Half-life:
1 days
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