V-Lab
Esteem Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
78.00%
increased by 0.20%
1 Week
1,040,202.61%
increased by 1,040,124.81%
1 Month
392,439,600,448,272,800,000,000.00%
increased by 392,439,600,448,272,800,000,000.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 36 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0907 | 18.89*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5000 | 13.17*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.8632 | 8.25*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.0000 | 0.23 |
Persistence:
0.341
Half-life:
1 days
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