V-Lab
Esteem Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
112.45%
decreased by 10.65%
1 Week
109.76%
decreased by 13.34%
1 Month
106.84%
decreased by 16.26%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 158% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 0.73 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.16 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1228 | 4.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6567 | 14.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5680 | 4.60*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.7348 | 1.91* |
Persistence:
0.751
Half-life:
2 days
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