V-Lab
Esteem Co Ltd Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
110.45%
1 Week
106.53%
1 Month
101.56%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. The volatility power δ = 0.85 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0000 | 0.35 |
| αARCH | 0.1713 | 1.68* |
| βGARCH | 0.6544 | 4.31*** |
| γleverage | 0.3940 | 1.55 |
| δpower | 0.8508 | 0.66 |
0.789
Persistence3d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 0.35 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1713 | 1.68* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6544 | 4.31*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3940 | 1.55 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8508 | 0.66 |
Persistence:
0.789
Half-life:
3 days
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