V-Lab
Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
86.48%
1 Week
86.52%
1 Month
86.70%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2019 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73300204 trading days (~290873.8 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0151 | 1.86* |
| αARCH | 0.2160 | 2.88*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7840 | 9.99*** |
| γleverage | 0.0067 | 0.04 |
| δpower | 1.9999 | 2.01** |
1.000
Persistence73300204d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0151 | 1.86* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2160 | 2.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7840 | 9.99*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0067 | 0.04 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.9999 | 2.01** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
73300204 days
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