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Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

96.14%

decreased by 4.31%

1 Week

96.28%

decreased by 4.17%

1 Month

96.81%

decreased by 3.64%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 18, 2019 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0508
0.94
αARCH0.0880
1.96*
βGARCH0.9120
23.94***

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0508
0.94
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0880
1.96*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9120
23.94***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-