V-Lab
Dana Brata Luhur Tbk PT AGARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
103.78%
1 Week
111.64%
1 Month
154.17%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 18, 2019 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.072 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0221 | 0.90 |
| αARCH | 0.2106 | 5.62*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8616 | 43.59*** |
| γleverage | -0.2963 | -0.88 |
1.072
Persistence-
Half-lifeAGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0221 | 0.90 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2106 | 5.62*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8616 | 43.59*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.2963 | -0.88 |
Persistence:
1.072
Half-life:
-
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