Obara Group Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
33.47%
decreased by 1.01%
1 Week
37.28%
increased by 2.80%
1 Month
43.16%
increased by 8.68%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2438 | 19.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2060 | 30.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6523 | 73.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1001 | 1.26 |
Persistence:
0.858
Half-life:
5 days
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