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V-Lab

Obara Group Inc AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

33.47%

decreased by 1.01%

1 Week

37.28%

increased by 2.80%

1 Month

43.16%

increased by 8.68%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 07:56 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Obara Group Inc AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 23, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2438
19.82***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2060
30.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6523
73.96***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1001
1.26

Persistence:

0.858

Half-life:

5 days