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V-Lab

Obara Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

35.22%

increased by 1.08%

1 Week

35.67%

increased by 1.53%

1 Month

37.28%

increased by 3.14%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:25 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Obara Group Inc GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jun 23, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

10.0005
4.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0796
43.64***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9874
330.77***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.6010
20.37***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days