V-Lab
Obara Group Inc GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
35.22%
increased by 1.08%
1 Week
35.67%
increased by 1.53%
1 Month
37.28%
increased by 3.14%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 26, 2026 at 03:25 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 23, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 10.0005 | 4.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0796 | 43.64*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9874 | 330.77*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.6010 | 20.37*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
Other Obara Group Inc Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on International Equities