Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
71.91%
decreased by 12.39%
1 Week
73.38%
decreased by 10.92%
1 Month
77.92%
decreased by 6.38%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:39 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-lifev = 3.25 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 37.3772 | 1.04 |
| αscore | 0.1863 | 8.37*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9662 | 29.87*** |
| νDF | 3.2537 | 4.81*** |
0.966
Persistence20d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 37.3772 | 1.04 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1863 | 8.37*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9662 | 29.87*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 3.2537 | 4.81*** |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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