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Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

71.91%

decreased by 12.39%

1 Week

73.38%

decreased by 10.92%

1 Month

77.92%

decreased by 6.38%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:39 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 22, 2003 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 20 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 20 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 3.25 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 20-day half-lifev = 3.25 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run37.3772
1.04
αscore0.1863
8.37***
βpersistence0.9662
29.87***
νDF3.2537
4.81***

0.966

Persistence

20d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

37.3772
1.04
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.1863
8.37***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9662
29.87***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

3.2537
4.81***

Persistence:

0.966

Half-life:

20 days