V-Lab
Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
97.40%
decreased by 1.66%
1 Week
114.80%
increased by 15.74%
1 Month
138.05%
increased by 38.99%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 02:30 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0605 | 2.85*** |
| αARCH | 0.2543 | 3.92*** |
| βGARCH | 0.5842 | 8.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.3646 | -1.19 |
| γ2 | 4.4318 | 2.62*** |
| γ3 | -4.7231 | -3.87*** |
| γ4 | 1.6523 | 1.69* |
| γ5 | -0.9409 | -0.85 |
| γ6 | 2.3992 | 1.76* |
| γ7 | -2.2392 | -1.73* |
| γ8 | 1.4257 | 1.16 |
| γ9 | -2.3178 | -1.79* |
| γ10 | 5.9428 | 3.67*** |
0.839
Persistence4d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0605 | 2.85*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2543 | 3.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5842 | 8.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.3646 | -1.19 |
| γ2 | 4.4318 | 2.62*** |
| γ3 | -4.7231 | -3.87*** |
| γ4 | 1.6523 | 1.69* |
| γ5 | -0.9409 | -0.85 |
| γ6 | 2.3992 | 1.76* |
| γ7 | -2.2392 | -1.73* |
| γ8 | 1.4257 | 1.16 |
| γ9 | -2.3178 | -1.79* |
| γ10 | 5.9428 | 3.67*** |
Persistence:
0.839
Half-life:
4 days
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