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V-Lab

Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

97.40%

decreased by 1.66%

1 Week

114.80%

increased by 15.74%

1 Month

138.05%

increased by 38.99%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, September 6, 2026 at 02:30 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 22, 2003 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0605
2.85***
αARCH0.2543
3.92***
βGARCH0.5842
8.03***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-1.3646
-1.19
γ24.4318
2.62***
γ3-4.7231
-3.87***
γ41.6523
1.69*
γ5-0.9409
-0.85
γ62.3992
1.76*
γ7-2.2392
-1.73*
γ81.4257
1.16
γ9-2.3178
-1.79*
γ105.9428
3.67***

0.839

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0605
2.85***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2543
3.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5842
8.03***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-1.3646
-1.19
γ24.4318
2.62***
γ3-4.7231
-3.87***
γ41.6523
1.69*
γ5-0.9409
-0.85
γ62.3992
1.76*
γ7-2.2392
-1.73*
γ81.4257
1.16
γ9-2.3178
-1.79*
γ105.9428
3.67***

Persistence:

0.839

Half-life:

4 days