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V-Lab

Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

123.99%

decreased by 17.18%

1 Week

130.86%

decreased by 10.31%

1 Month

140.71%

decreased by 0.46%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT SGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 22, 2003 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0589
2.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2443
3.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5856
7.67***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=10
γ1-1.4250
-1.21
γ24.5622
2.65***
γ3-4.7627
-3.97***
γ41.6398
1.67*
γ5-1.1095
-0.92
γ62.6903
1.93*
γ7-2.5278
-2.07**
γ81.8992
1.71*
γ9-3.1307
-2.72***
γ106.8683
4.99***

Persistence:

0.830

Half-life:

4 days