Trust Finance Indonesia Tbk PT Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
123.99%
decreased by 17.18%
1 Week
130.86%
decreased by 10.31%
1 Month
140.71%
decreased by 0.46%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Apr 22, 2003 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0589 | 2.84*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2443 | 3.74*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.5856 | 7.67*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=10
| γ1 | -1.4250 | -1.21 |
| γ2 | 4.5622 | 2.65*** |
| γ3 | -4.7627 | -3.97*** |
| γ4 | 1.6398 | 1.67* |
| γ5 | -1.1095 | -0.92 |
| γ6 | 2.6903 | 1.93* |
| γ7 | -2.5278 | -2.07** |
| γ8 | 1.8992 | 1.71* |
| γ9 | -3.1307 | -2.72*** |
| γ10 | 6.8683 | 4.99*** |
Persistence:
0.830
Half-life:
4 days
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