V-Lab
Reliance Industries Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
26.55%
decreased by 2.01%
1 Week
26.18%
decreased by 2.38%
1 Month
25.26%
decreased by 3.30%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 09:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.5577 | 6.65*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1332 | 6.54*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7820 | 28.10*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.1152 | 7.08*** |
| γ2 | -0.1583 | -6.54*** |
| γ3 | 0.0819 | 4.35*** |
| γ4 | -0.0759 | -3.76*** |
| γ5 | 0.0714 | 3.54*** |
| γ6 | -0.0603 | -3.06*** |
| γ7 | 0.0397 | 1.34 |
Persistence:
0.915
Half-life:
8 days
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