V-Lab
Reliance Industries Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
22.13%
increased by 1.15%
1 Week
22.90%
increased by 1.92%
1 Month
24.46%
increased by 3.48%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 10:07 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 5 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 5 days.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 5-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 21 | |
| αARCH | 0.1255 | 3.71*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7126 | 17.76*** |
| γleverage | 0.0576 | 1.88* |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0172 | 2.44** |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.0181 | 4.79*** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.9781 | 239.72*** |
0.867
Persistence5d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1255 | 3.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7126 | 17.76*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0576 | 1.88* |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0172 | 2.44** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0181 | 4.79*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9781 | 239.72*** |
Persistence:
0.867
Half-life:
5 days
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