V-Lab
Reliance Industries Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
16.79%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Week
18.00%
increased by 0.95%
1 Month
20.59%
increased by 3.54%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 07:01 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 8 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.4808 | 6.54*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1325 | 6.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7828 | 28.20*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=7
| γ1 | 0.1098 | 6.70*** |
| γ2 | -0.1494 | -6.15*** |
| γ3 | 0.0757 | 4.04*** |
| γ4 | -0.0708 | -3.54*** |
| γ5 | 0.0678 | 3.41*** |
| γ6 | -0.0581 | -3.35*** |
| γ7 | 0.0375 | 2.96*** |
Persistence:
0.915
Half-life:
8 days
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