Beiersdorf AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
23.25%
decreased by 0.27%
1 Week
23.09%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Month
22.76%
decreased by 0.76%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:37 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0995 | 6.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1212 | 7.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7669 | 27.18*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0665 | 5.59*** |
| γ2 | -0.1240 | -7.59*** |
| γ3 | 0.0848 | 7.80*** |
| γ4 | -0.0343 | -2.88*** |
| γ5 | 0.0140 | 1.06 |
| γ6 | -0.0100 | -0.97 |
Persistence:
0.888
Half-life:
6 days
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