V-Lab
Beiersdorf AG Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
21.93%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
22.01%
decreased by 0.24%
1 Month
22.17%
decreased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0952 | 6.44*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1213 | 7.21*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7662 | 27.08*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.0658 | 5.54*** |
| γ2 | -0.1232 | -7.55*** |
| γ3 | 0.0845 | 7.81*** |
| γ4 | -0.0341 | -2.88*** |
| γ5 | 0.0138 | 1.05 |
| γ6 | -0.0097 | -0.95 |
Persistence:
0.888
Half-life:
6 days
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