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V-Lab

G-Devs SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

88.29%

increased by 24.73%

1 Week

103.61%

increased by 40.05%

1 Month

129.26%

increased by 65.70%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of G-Devs SA S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 4, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 6 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3370
2.27**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5552
3.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.3316
2.70***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.0417
-0.24

Persistence:

0.887

Half-life:

6 days