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V-Lab
V-Lab

G-Devs SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

217.83%

increased by 66.25%

1 Week

203.62%

increased by 52.04%

1 Month

180.76%

increased by 29.18%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 07:53 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of G-Devs SA S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 4, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 4 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1080
2.49**
αARCH0.6621
3.40***
βGARCH0.1592
1.70*
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1479
-1.23

0.821

Persistence

4d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1080
2.49**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.6621
3.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1592
1.70*
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1479
-1.23

Persistence:

0.821

Half-life:

4 days