V-Lab
G-Devs SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
96.20%
increased by 14.81%
1 Week
120.64%
increased by 39.25%
1 Month
157.58%
increased by 76.19%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 4, 2024 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.3362 | 2.02** |
| αARCH | 0.7017 | 3.77*** |
| βGARCH | 0.1762 | 1.81* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1161 | -0.90 |
0.878
Persistence5d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.3362 | 2.02** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7017 | 3.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1762 | 1.81* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1161 | -0.90 |
Persistence:
0.878
Half-life:
5 days
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