V-Lab
G-Devs SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
465.11%
decreased by 11.64%
1 Week
440.39%
decreased by 36.36%
1 Month
370.86%
decreased by 105.89%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 4, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5677 | 1.89* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.7168 | 4.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2089 | 1.95* |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.1719 | -1.03 |
Persistence:
0.926
Half-life:
9 days
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