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V-Lab
V-Lab

G-Devs SA Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

96.20%

increased by 14.81%

1 Week

120.64%

increased by 39.25%

1 Month

157.58%

increased by 76.19%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of G-Devs SA S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 4, 2024 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 5 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.3362
2.02**
αARCH0.7017
3.77***
βGARCH0.1762
1.81*
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1161
-0.90

0.878

Persistence

5d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3362
2.02**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.7017
3.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1762
1.81*
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ1-0.1161
-0.90

Persistence:

0.878

Half-life:

5 days