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G-Devs SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

152.26%

increased by 36.73%

1 Week

174.21%

increased by 58.68%

1 Month

238.40%

increased by 122.87%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of G-Devs SA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 4, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 58-day half-lifev = 2.33 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1,298.4545
1.20
αARCH0.3121
17.31***
βGARCH0.9881
109.41***
νDF2.3312
21.53***

0.988

Persistence

58d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1,298.4545
1.20
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3121
17.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9881
109.41***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.3312
21.53***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

58 days