Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

G-Devs SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

155.44%

increased by 32.79%

1 Week

172.68%

increased by 50.03%

1 Month

225.43%

increased by 102.78%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of G-Devs SA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 4, 2024 to Oct 2, 2026
Extended Optimization

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 61-day half-lifev = 2.43 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1,099.2851
1.19
αARCH0.3072
16.67***
βGARCH0.9887
115.62***
νDF2.4318
16.10***

0.989

Persistence

61d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1,099.2851
1.19
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.3072
16.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9887
115.62***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.4318
16.10***

Persistence:

0.989

Half-life:

61 days