V-Lab
G-Devs SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
152.26%
increased by 36.73%
1 Week
174.21%
increased by 58.68%
1 Month
238.40%
increased by 122.87%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 4, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 58 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 58 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.33 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 58-day half-lifev = 2.33 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1,298.4545 | 1.20 |
| αARCH | 0.3121 | 17.31*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9881 | 109.41*** |
| νDF | 2.3312 | 21.53*** |
0.988
Persistence58d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1,298.4545 | 1.20 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3121 | 17.31*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9881 | 109.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.3312 | 21.53*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
58 days
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