V-Lab
G-Devs SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
155.44%
increased by 32.79%
1 Week
172.68%
increased by 50.03%
1 Month
225.43%
increased by 102.78%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 11:09 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 4, 2024 to Oct 2, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 61 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 61 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.43 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 61-day half-lifev = 2.43 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1,099.2851 | 1.19 |
| αARCH | 0.3072 | 16.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9887 | 115.62*** |
| νDF | 2.4318 | 16.10*** |
0.989
Persistence61d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1,099.2851 | 1.19 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3072 | 16.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9887 | 115.62*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.4318 | 16.10*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
61 days
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