G-Devs SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
215.51%
increased by 64.73%
1 Week
219.74%
increased by 68.96%
1 Month
234.77%
increased by 83.99%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 07:53 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 4, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-lifev = 4.04 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 559.2436 | 1.16 |
| αscore | 0.3359 | 7.92*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9885 | 111.81*** |
| νDF | 4.0354 | 2.78*** |
0.988
Persistence60d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 559.2436 | 1.16 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.3359 | 7.92*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9885 | 111.81*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.0354 | 2.78*** |
Persistence:
0.988
Half-life:
60 days
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