Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

G-Devs SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026

1 Day

215.51%

increased by 64.73%

1 Week

219.74%

increased by 68.96%

1 Month

234.77%

increased by 83.99%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 07:53 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/23/2024

to

10/23/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of G-Devs SA GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 4, 2024 to Oct 23, 2026
Extended Optimization

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 60 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 60 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.04 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 60-day half-lifev = 4.04 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run559.2436
1.16
αscore0.3359
7.92***
βpersistence0.9885
111.81***
νDF4.0354
2.78***

0.988

Persistence

60d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

559.2436
1.16
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.3359
7.92***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9885
111.81***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.0354
2.78***

Persistence:

0.988

Half-life:

60 days