V-Lab
G-Devs SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
115.79%
increased by 45.20%
1 Week
137.45%
increased by 66.86%
1 Month
200.16%
increased by 129.57%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 4, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 128 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.44 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2,079.7190 | 7.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3105 | 63.22*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9946 | 1,588.82*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.4365 | 69.52*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
128 days
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