V-Lab
G-Devs SA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
444.45%
increased by 40.46%
1 Week
447.27%
increased by 43.28%
1 Month
458.40%
increased by 54.41%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:18 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 4, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 8.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5101 | 6.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4839 | 16.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0120 | 0.11 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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