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V-Lab

G-Devs SA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026

1 Day

444.45%

increased by 40.46%

1 Week

447.27%

increased by 43.28%

1 Month

458.40%

increased by 54.41%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 23, 2026 at 01:18 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of G-Devs SA GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 4, 2024 to Aug 21, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
8.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5101
6.43***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4839
16.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0120
0.11

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days