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V-Lab
V-Lab

G-Devs SA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

79.77%

increased by 12.78%

1 Week

94.25%

increased by 27.26%

1 Month

137.71%

increased by 70.72%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 3, 2026 at 11:08 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of G-Devs SA GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 4, 2024 to Oct 2, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
2.23**
αARCH0.5208
1.74*
βGARCH0.4777
4.45***
γleverage0.0030
0.01

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
2.23**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5208
1.74*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4777
4.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0030
0.01

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-