V-Lab
G-Devs SA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
73.94%
1 Week
89.37%
1 Month
134.41%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 4, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 5.0000 | 2.16** |
| αARCH | 0.5158 | 1.70* |
| βGARCH | 0.4815 | 4.40*** |
| γleverage | 0.0053 | 0.01 |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 2.16** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.5158 | 1.70* |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.4815 | 4.40*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0053 | 0.01 |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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