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V-Lab
V-Lab

G-Devs SA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

73.94%

increased by 9.93%

1 Week

89.37%

increased by 25.36%

1 Month

134.41%

increased by 70.40%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of G-Devs SA GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 4, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~1386294 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst5.0000
2.16**
αARCH0.5158
1.70*
βGARCH0.4815
4.40***
γleverage0.0053
0.01

1.000

Persistence

1386294d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
2.16**
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.5158
1.70*
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.4815
4.40***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0053
0.01

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

1386294 days