V-Lab
G-Devs SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
61.26%
increased by 10.33%
1 Week
68.78%
increased by 17.85%
1 Month
101.60%
increased by 50.67%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 4, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 55% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 31 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2595 | 24.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6221 | 66.57*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1420 | 5.75*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 10.0000 | 0.93 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.3190 | 1.01 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.4920 | 0.91 |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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