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V-Lab

G-Devs SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026

1 Day

61.26%

increased by 10.33%

1 Week

68.78%

increased by 17.85%

1 Month

101.60%

increased by 50.67%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 08:02 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

All

graph of G-Devs SA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Nov 4, 2024 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 55% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

31
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2595
24.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6221
66.57***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1420
5.75***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

10.0000
0.93
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.3190
1.01
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.4920
0.91

Persistence:

0.953

Half-life:

14 days