V-Lab
G-Devs SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
91.09%
increased by 11.82%
1 Week
103.71%
increased by 24.44%
1 Month
109.79%
increased by 30.52%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:08 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 4, 2024 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| αARCH | 0.4864 | 3.82*** |
| βGARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | 0.1025 | 0.39 |
| λ₁tau intercept | 49.5461 |
0.538
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4864 | 3.82*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1025 | 0.39 |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 49.5461 |
Persistence:
0.538
Half-life:
1 days
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