Zensho Holdings Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
47.22%
1 Week
46.63%
1 Month
45.91%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:32 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 21, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 104% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1153 | 9.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7632 | 18.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0587 | -3.10*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0087 | 0.36 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0152 | 1.43 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9848 | 62.53*** |
Persistence:
0.849
Half-life:
4 days
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