V-Lab
Zensho Holdings Co Ltd MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
44.23%
1 Week
44.91%
1 Month
46.31%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 21, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 102% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 126 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1110 | 9.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7670 | 18.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0561 | -2.91*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0092 | 0.38 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0163 | 1.47 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9837 | 61.45*** |
Persistence:
0.850
Half-life:
4 days
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