V-Lab
Zensho Holdings Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
46.32%
decreased by 0.69%
1 Week
47.57%
increased by 0.56%
1 Month
49.23%
increased by 2.22%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:33 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 21, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9226 | 5.20*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0796 | 2.11** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7265 | 4.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | 0.2371 | 0.49 |
| γ2 | 0.3599 | 0.48 |
| γ3 | -1.3075 | -1.99** |
| γ4 | 1.2381 | 2.07** |
| γ5 | -0.8253 | -2.30** |
Persistence:
0.806
Half-life:
3 days
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