V-Lab
Esteem Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
25.19%
decreased by 0.09%
1 Week
25.02%
decreased by 0.26%
1 Month
24.38%
decreased by 0.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2991 | 0.23 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9851 | 0.10 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 76.2941 | 0.07 |
| γ2 | 80.4178 | 0.15 |
| γ3 | -366.3682 | -1.18 |
| γ4 | 307.9817 | 2.49** |
0.985
Persistence46d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2991 | 0.23 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9851 | 0.10 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 76.2941 | 0.07 |
| γ2 | 80.4178 | 0.15 |
| γ3 | -366.3682 | -1.18 |
| γ4 | 307.9817 | 2.49** |
Persistence:
0.985
Half-life:
46 days
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