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Esteem Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026

1 Day

127.86%

decreased by 33.81%

1 Week

132.13%

decreased by 29.54%

1 Month

147.98%

decreased by 13.69%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/28/2024

to

10/28/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Esteem Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 6, 2026 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 115524 trading days (~458.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000, shock half-life ~115524 days
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.4324
0.01
αARCH0.4686
0.00
βGARCH0.5314
0.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-113.4116
0.00
γ2128.4227
0.00

1.000

Persistence

115524d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.4324
0.01
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4686
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.5314
0.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=2
γ1-113.4116
0.00
γ2128.4227
0.00

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

115524 days