V-Lab
Esteem Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
68.24%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Week
70.06%
increased by 1.11%
1 Month
70.43%
increased by 1.48%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 09:23 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2026 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8166 | 2.49** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0668 | 0.59 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -82.6857 | -0.61 |
| γ2 | 323.1493 | 1.54 |
| γ3 | -448.0833 | -3.67*** |
| γ4 | 280.7403 | 4.34*** |
Persistence:
0.067
Half-life:
0 days
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