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V-Lab
V-Lab

Esteem Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026

1 Day

25.19%

decreased by 0.09%

1 Week

25.02%

decreased by 0.26%

1 Month

24.38%

decreased by 0.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

All

graph of Esteem Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 6, 2026 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 46 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.2991
0.23
αARCH0.0000
0.00
βGARCH0.9851
0.10
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ176.2941
0.07
γ280.4178
0.15
γ3-366.3682
-1.18
γ4307.9817
2.49**

0.985

Persistence

46d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.2991
0.23
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0000
0.00
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9851
0.10
γi Spline Coefficients
K=4
γ176.2941
0.07
γ280.4178
0.15
γ3-366.3682
-1.18
γ4307.9817
2.49**

Persistence:

0.985

Half-life:

46 days