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V-Lab

Esteem Co Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

18.77%

increased by 4.06%

1 Week

15.75%

increased by 1.04%

1 Month

15.09%

increased by 0.38%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 08:11 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

All

graph of Esteem Co Ltd S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 6, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.8914
2.66***
αARCH0.0230
0.30
βGARCH0.0000
0.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-81.6738
-0.64
γ2298.1271
1.53
γ3-372.6430
-3.01***
γ4112.1088
1.12
γ5126.8375
1.86*

0.023

Persistence

0d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8914
2.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0230
0.30
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.0000
0.00
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=5
γ1-81.6738
-0.64
γ2298.1271
1.53
γ3-372.6430
-3.01***
γ4112.1088
1.12
γ5126.8375
1.86*

Persistence:

0.023

Half-life:

0 days