V-Lab
Esteem Co Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 5th, 2026
1 Day
89.29%
increased by 1.42%
1 Week
89.23%
increased by 1.36%
1 Month
89.08%
increased by 1.21%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 5, 2026 at 07:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2026 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 7 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 7 days. The volatility power δ = 1.38 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 0.80 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0135 | 0.02 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8921 | 21.85*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -1.0000 | -0.01 |
δ power Transformation power | 1.3778 | 2.58*** |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
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