Victory Electric Vehicles International Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
68.79%
1 Week
66.81%
1 Month
65.11%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 07:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 15, 2026 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 295% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets. The volatility power δ = 0.83 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.64 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1101 | 2.22** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6045 | 4.92*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.6776 | -3.90*** |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8335 | 2.99*** |
Persistence:
0.689
Half-life:
2 days
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