V-Lab
Ventia Services Group Pty Ltd APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
30.86%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
30.86%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Month
30.86%
unchanged at 0.00%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 07:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2021 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 3 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 3 days. The volatility power δ = 2.54 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0000 | 1.75* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8158 | 16.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0641 | 0.00 |
δ power Transformation power | 2.5444 | 4.21*** |
Persistence:
0.816
Half-life:
3 days
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