V-Lab
Ventia Services Group Pty Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
28.21%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
29.66%
increased by 0.81%
1 Month
29.98%
increased by 1.13%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 11:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 23, 2021 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0990 | 5.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1201 | 1.43 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | 0.9547 | 0.55 |
| γ2 | -2.9296 | -1.15 |
| γ3 | 5.7587 | 2.93*** |
| γ4 | -8.0071 | -3.24*** |
| γ5 | 7.2618 | 2.82*** |
| γ6 | -4.6962 | -1.49 |
Persistence:
0.120
Half-life:
0 days
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