V-Lab
PT Mitra Pack TBK Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
74.22%
increased by 22.12%
1 Week
71.95%
increased by 19.85%
1 Month
70.08%
increased by 17.98%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 9, 2026 at 01:26 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2023 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 2 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0116 | 4.18*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3078 | 2.60*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3632 | 1.36 |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | -0.1886 | -0.09 |
| γ2 | -1.7223 | -0.47 |
| γ3 | 4.6788 | 1.86* |
| γ4 | -4.8192 | -2.65*** |
Persistence:
0.671
Half-life:
2 days
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