V-Lab
PT Mitra Pack TBK GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
80.84%
decreased by 20.89%
1 Week
112.09%
increased by 10.36%
1 Month
136.09%
increased by 34.36%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2023 to Aug 24, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 83.5612 | 3.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2764 | 8.41*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7279 | 9.52*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.2192 | 32.01*** |
Persistence:
0.728
Half-life:
2 days
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