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V-Lab

PT Mitra Pack TBK GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

80.84%

decreased by 20.89%

1 Week

112.09%

increased by 10.36%

1 Month

136.09%

increased by 34.36%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of PT Mitra Pack TBK GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 6, 2023 to Aug 24, 2026
Extended Optimization

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 2 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 2 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 2.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

83.5612
3.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2764
8.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7279
9.52***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

2.2192
32.01***

Persistence:

0.728

Half-life:

2 days