V-Lab
PT Mitra Pack TBK GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
64.11%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
70.58%
increased by 5.63%
1 Month
79.10%
increased by 14.15%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 6, 2023 to Aug 24, 2026Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 5.0000 | 5.81*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1422 | 3.77*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6755 | 26.53*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0052 | 0.09 |
Persistence:
0.820
Half-life:
4 days
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