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V-Lab

PT Mitra Pack TBK GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026

1 Day

64.11%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Week

70.58%

increased by 5.63%

1 Month

79.10%

increased by 14.15%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 08:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

All

graph of PT Mitra Pack TBK GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 6, 2023 to Aug 24, 2026
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 4 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 4 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

5.0000
5.81***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1422
3.77***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.6755
26.53***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0052
0.09

Persistence:

0.820

Half-life:

4 days