Bellini Nautica S P A GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
49.14%
decreased by 14.48%
1 Week
45.99%
decreased by 17.63%
1 Month
43.98%
decreased by 19.64%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 10:49 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2022 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.1006 | 4.56*** |
| αARCH | 0.2971 | 2.10** |
| βGARCH | 0.2742 | 2.16** |
| γleverage | 0.0229 | 0.10 |
0.583
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.1006 | 4.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2971 | 2.10** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2742 | 2.16** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0229 | 0.10 |
Persistence:
0.583
Half-life:
1 days
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