V-Lab
Bellini Nautica S P A GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
50.45%
increased by 17.55%
1 Week
46.42%
increased by 13.52%
1 Month
43.99%
increased by 11.09%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 07:27 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jun 15, 2022 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 1 trading day, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 1 day.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 1-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.2654 | 5.23*** |
| αARCH | 0.3250 | 2.24** |
| βGARCH | 0.2208 | 1.97** |
| γleverage | 0.0245 | 0.11 |
0.558
Persistence1d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.2654 | 5.23*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.3250 | 2.24** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2208 | 1.97** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0245 | 0.11 |
Persistence:
0.558
Half-life:
1 days
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