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Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 8th, 2026

1 Day

34.38%

increased by 3.37%

1 Week

35.17%

increased by 4.16%

1 Month

37.79%

increased by 6.78%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 06:25 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

09/30/2024

to

09/30/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 6, 1994 to Sep 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 35-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.2025
5.66***
αARCH0.0827
5.50***
βGARCH0.8936
86.08***
γleverage0.0080
0.32

0.980

Persistence

35d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.2025
5.66***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0827
5.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8936
86.08***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0080
0.32

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

35 days