Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 26th, 2026
1 Day
42.78%
increased by 1.65%
1 Week
43.12%
increased by 1.99%
1 Month
44.31%
increased by 3.18%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, October 25, 2026 at 01:24 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1994 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 35 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 35 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 35-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2041 | 5.68*** |
| αARCH | 0.0828 | 5.50*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8933 | 85.88*** |
| γleverage | 0.0080 | 0.32 |
0.980
Persistence35d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2041 | 5.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0828 | 5.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8933 | 85.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0080 | 0.32 |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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