V-Lab
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
40.00%
decreased by 3.27%
1 Week
40.60%
decreased by 2.67%
1 Month
42.57%
decreased by 0.70%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 07:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1994 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 24 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 24 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 24-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.2798 | 7.08*** |
| αARCH | 0.1855 | 9.96*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7804 | 63.49*** |
| γleverage | 0.0116 | 0.32 |
0.972
Persistence24d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.2798 | 7.08*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1855 | 9.96*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7804 | 63.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0116 | 0.32 |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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