V-Lab
Shanxi Xinghuacun Fen Wine Factory Co Ltd Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
36.77%
increased by 0.38%
1 Week
36.75%
increased by 0.36%
1 Month
36.72%
increased by 0.33%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:19 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 6, 1994 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 9 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.6872 | 4.94*** |
| αARCH | 0.0936 | 8.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8309 | 39.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0058 | -0.13 |
| γ2 | 0.0010 | 0.02 |
| γ3 | 0.0878 | 2.33** |
| γ4 | -0.1707 | -5.35*** |
| γ5 | 0.1312 | 4.15*** |
| γ6 | -0.0428 | -1.40 |
| γ7 | -0.0472 | -1.39 |
| γ8 | 0.1084 | 2.15** |
0.924
Persistence9d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.6872 | 4.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0936 | 8.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8309 | 39.03*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0058 | -0.13 |
| γ2 | 0.0010 | 0.02 |
| γ3 | 0.0878 | 2.33** |
| γ4 | -0.1707 | -5.35*** |
| γ5 | 0.1312 | 4.15*** |
| γ6 | -0.0428 | -1.40 |
| γ7 | -0.0472 | -1.39 |
| γ8 | 0.1084 | 2.15** |
Persistence:
0.924
Half-life:
9 days
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