Taisei Corp Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
51.16%
increased by 5.15%
1 Week
52.16%
increased by 6.15%
1 Month
54.30%
increased by 8.29%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, July 16, 2026 at 07:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2204 | 8.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1306 | 9.01*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7721 | 34.79*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0452 | 1.76* |
| γ2 | -0.0139 | -0.36 |
| γ3 | -0.1113 | -4.14*** |
| γ4 | 0.1522 | 5.67*** |
| γ5 | -0.1330 | -4.67*** |
| γ6 | 0.1116 | 3.67*** |
| γ7 | -0.0812 | -2.13** |
| γ8 | 0.1051 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.903
Half-life:
7 days
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities