Merck KGaA Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
24.68%
decreased by 0.14%
1 Week
26.06%
increased by 1.24%
1 Month
27.92%
increased by 3.10%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 21, 2026 at 06:39 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 20, 1995 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 3 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.5819 | 7.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1300 | 7.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.6867 | 16.81*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=5
| γ1 | -0.0613 | -5.64*** |
| γ2 | 0.0742 | 4.85*** |
| γ3 | -0.0205 | -1.94* |
| γ4 | 0.0263 | 2.20** |
| γ5 | -0.0352 | -1.98** |
Persistence:
0.817
Half-life:
3 days
Other Spline-GARCH Analyses on International Equities