V-Lab
Merck KGaA Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
32.48%
increased by 4.10%
1 Week
31.26%
increased by 2.88%
1 Month
28.46%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 20, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 19% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.20 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1596 | 18.07*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2002 | 58.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7445 | 127.07*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0721 | 8.96*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1954 | 27.05*** |
Persistence:
0.907
Half-life:
7 days
Other Asy. Power MEM Analyses on International Equities