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V-Lab

Merck KGaA Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

32.48%

increased by 4.10%

1 Week

31.26%

increased by 2.88%

1 Month

28.46%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck KGaA APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 20, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 19% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.20 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1596
18.07***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2002
58.38***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7445
127.07***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0721
8.96***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1954
27.05***

Persistence:

0.907

Half-life:

7 days