V-Lab
Obayashi Corp Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 11th, 2026
1 Day
31.13%
1 Week
29.30%
1 Month
24.60%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 07:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Nov 30, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 11 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 11 days. The volatility power δ = 0.81 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0611 | 6.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.2308 | 17.57*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7552 | 51.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.0357 | 1.56 |
| δpower | 0.8108 | 4.49*** |
0.939
Persistence11d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0611 | 6.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2308 | 17.57*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7552 | 51.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0357 | 1.56 |
δ power Transformation power | 0.8108 | 4.49*** |
Persistence:
0.939
Half-life:
11 days
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