V-Lab
Obayashi Corp Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 24th, 2026
1 Day
25.68%
decreased by 0.75%
1 Week
27.70%
increased by 1.27%
1 Month
31.72%
increased by 5.29%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 07:21 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1188 | 7.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1416 | 9.43*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7610 | 36.98*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=9
| γ1 | -0.0062 | -0.18 |
| γ2 | 0.0723 | 1.48 |
| γ3 | -0.1639 | -5.74*** |
| γ4 | 0.1731 | 6.24*** |
| γ5 | -0.1257 | -4.18*** |
| γ6 | 0.0747 | 2.51** |
| γ7 | -0.0360 | -1.19 |
| γ8 | 0.0393 | 1.22 |
| γ9 | -0.0446 | -1.68* |
Persistence:
0.903
Half-life:
7 days
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