XtalPi Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
71.94%
decreased by 3.88%
1 Week
74.80%
decreased by 1.02%
1 Month
76.00%
increased by 0.18%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 09:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 2026 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0053 | 5.86*** |
| αARCH | 0.1403 | 1.54 |
| βGARCH | 0.3215 | 0.65 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0066 | -0.01 |
0.462
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0053 | 5.86*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1403 | 1.54 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.3215 | 0.65 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | -0.0066 | -0.01 |
Persistence:
0.462
Half-life:
1 days
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