V-Lab
XtalPi Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
73.08%
increased by 6.83%
1 Week
71.20%
increased by 4.95%
1 Month
70.59%
increased by 4.34%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 2026 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.0905 | 6.27*** |
| αARCH | 0.1068 | 1.09 |
| βGARCH | 0.2134 | 0.27 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.4745 | 0.63 |
0.320
Persistence1d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0905 | 6.27*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1068 | 1.09 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2134 | 0.27 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.4745 | 0.63 |
Persistence:
0.320
Half-life:
1 days
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