V-Lab
XtalPi Holdings Ltd Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
71.62%
decreased by 0.66%
1 Week
73.01%
increased by 0.73%
1 Month
73.44%
increased by 1.16%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 2026 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 1 trading day.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0498 | 5.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0435 | 0.47 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.2774 | 0.14 |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.4183 | 0.32 |
Persistence:
0.321
Half-life:
1 days
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