V-Lab
XtalPi Holdings Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
63.20%
decreased by 0.12%
1 Week
62.95%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Month
62.00%
decreased by 1.32%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 16, 2026 at 05:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 9, 2026 to Sep 11, 2026Hessian SE
Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 179 trading days (~0.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.996, shock half-life ~179 days
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| αARCH | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
| βGARCH | 0.9961 | 0.00 |
| γleverage | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
0.996
Persistence179d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9961 | 0.00 |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0000 | 0.00 |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
179 days
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