Spenda Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
335.76%
1 Week
335.80%
1 Month
335.98%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2002 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0583 | 0.49 |
| αARCH | 0.0081 | 0.73 |
| βGARCH | 0.9710 | 100.70*** |
| γleverage | 0.0418 | 3.18*** |
1.000
Persistence1386294d
Half-lifeGJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0583 | 0.49 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0081 | 0.73 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9710 | 100.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0418 | 3.18*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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