V-Lab
Spenda Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
295.07%
1 Week
295.12%
1 Month
295.32%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 05:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2002 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 1386294 trading days (~5501.2 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0583 | 1.96* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0082 | 2.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9710 | 399.74*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0416 | 12.53*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
1386294 days
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