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V-Lab

Spenda Ltd GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

299.76%

decreased by 2.67%

1 Week

299.80%

decreased by 2.63%

1 Month

300.00%

decreased by 2.43%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 7, 2026 at 06:07 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Spenda Ltd GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2002 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.000 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.000 ≥ 1, shocks do not decayLeverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0583
0.49
αARCH0.0082
0.73
βGARCH0.9710
100.28***
γleverage0.0416
3.16***

1.000

Persistence

-

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0583
0.49
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0082
0.73
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9710
100.28***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0416
3.16***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

-