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V-Lab
V-Lab

Spenda Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

327.48%

decreased by 6.69%

1 Week

328.04%

decreased by 6.13%

1 Month

330.31%

decreased by 3.86%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Spenda Ltd AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 29, 2002 to Aug 28, 2026

Model Insight

Estimated persistence of 1.001 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 1.001 ≥ 1, shocks do not decay
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1434
1.66*
αARCH0.0416
2.90***
βGARCH0.9598
71.84***
γleverage-0.3448
-0.16

1.001

Persistence

-

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1434
1.66*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0416
2.90***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9598
71.84***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3448
-0.16

Persistence:

1.001

Half-life:

-