V-Lab
Spenda Ltd AGARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026
1 Day
327.48%
1 Week
328.04%
1 Month
330.31%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 9, 2026 at 05:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 29, 2002 to Aug 28, 2026Model Insight
Estimated persistence of 1.001 is at or above 1 (non-stationary): volatility shocks do not decay and the long-run variance is undefined, so long-horizon forecasts should be treated with caution.
AGARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1434 | 1.66* |
| αARCH | 0.0416 | 2.90*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9598 | 71.84*** |
| γleverage | -0.3448 | -0.16 |
1.001
Persistence-
Half-lifeAGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1434 | 1.66* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0416 | 2.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9598 | 71.84*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3448 | -0.16 |
Persistence:
1.001
Half-life:
-
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