V-Lab
Merck KGaA AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026
1 Day
24.15%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
24.40%
decreased by 0.20%
1 Month
25.25%
increased by 0.65%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:44 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 20, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.65) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0540 | 11.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0440 | 33.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9352 | 476.68*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.6499 | 11.36*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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