Skip to main content
V-Lab

Merck KGaA AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 7th, 2026

1 Day

24.15%

decreased by 0.45%

1 Week

24.40%

decreased by 0.20%

1 Month

25.25%

increased by 0.65%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 06:44 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Merck KGaA AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Oct 20, 1995 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.65) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0540
11.99***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0440
33.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9352
476.68***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.6499
11.36***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days