Taisei Corp AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
42.14%
decreased by 1.20%
1 Week
42.01%
decreased by 1.33%
1 Month
41.58%
decreased by 1.76%
Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 12:36 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.54) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1437 | 15.98*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1073 | 42.51*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8647 | 266.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5421 | 12.39*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
24 days
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