V-Lab
Mercedes-Benz Group AG AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
24.61%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Week
25.00%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Month
26.30%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 26, 1998 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
The news-impact curve is shifted (γ = 0.56) so that negative returns raise next-day volatility more than positive returns of the same size. The gap is largest for small shocks and narrows for larger ones.
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0760 | 10.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0812 | 47.28*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8932 | 435.94*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5583 | 14.28*** |
Persistence:
0.974
Half-life:
27 days
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