V-Lab
Mercedes-Benz Group AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
28.89%
1 Week
29.01%
1 Month
29.48%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 08:26 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 26, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 151 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 6.3871 | 1.01 |
| αARCH | 0.0623 | 12.36*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9954 | 218.58*** |
| νDF | 6.0834 | 2.48** |
0.995
Persistence151d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.3871 | 1.01 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0623 | 12.36*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9954 | 218.58*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0834 | 2.48** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
151 days
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