Mercedes-Benz Group AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
29.68%
decreased by 1.11%
1 Week
29.80%
decreased by 0.99%
1 Month
30.23%
decreased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 26, 1998 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.996, volatility shocks have a half-life of 158 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.08 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.5703 | 4.09*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0625 | 50.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9956 | 926.16*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0797 | 10.25*** |
Persistence:
0.996
Half-life:
158 days
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