V-Lab
Mercedes-Benz Group AG GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 25th, 2026
1 Day
21.69%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Week
21.93%
decreased by 0.60%
1 Month
22.82%
increased by 0.29%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, August 25, 2026 at 06:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Oct 26, 1998 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 152 trading days (~0.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.09 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 6.3744 | 4.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0625 | 49.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9955 | 877.82*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.0928 | 9.94*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
152 days
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