V-Lab
T-Bull SA GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
3,719.81%
increased by 659.77%
1 Week
3,716.14%
increased by 656.10%
1 Month
3,701.51%
increased by 641.47%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 08:36 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2020 to Aug 21, 2026Extended Optimization
Boundary Parameters
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
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GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 652.4456 | 6.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1215 | 130.38*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9990 | 6,403.85*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0006 |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
693 days
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