T-Bull SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
150.46%
1 Week
156.32%
1 Month
179.63%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 276% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.4503 | 18.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.1983 | 4.95*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.3307 | -7.31*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.8737 | 0.61 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1562 | 1.08 |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8438 | 6.31*** |
Persistence:
0.483
Half-life:
1 days
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