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V-Lab

T-Bull SA MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

150.46%

decreased by 37.27%

1 Week

156.32%

decreased by 31.41%

1 Month

179.63%

decreased by 8.10%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

All

graph of T-Bull SA MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset shows a rare inverse leverage effect: positive returns raise next-day volatility 276% more than negative returns. Volatility rises more after gains than after losses, the reverse of the usual leverage effect and uncommon among risky assets.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.4503
18.14***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.1983
4.95***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.3307
-7.31***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.8737
0.61
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1562
1.08
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8438
6.31***

Persistence:

0.483

Half-life:

1 days