T-Bull SA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
115.54%
1 Week
116.32%
1 Month
119.42%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 6, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 318% more than negative returns
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.3623 | 6.79*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1185 | 10.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9265 | 269.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0902 | -5.30*** |
Persistence:
1.000
Half-life:
693147 days
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