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V-Lab

T-Bull SA GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

High-persistence model: shocks decay very slowly, so the theoretical long-run value may not be practically meaningful

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

115.54%

increased by 0.79%

1 Week

116.32%

increased by 1.57%

1 Month

119.42%

increased by 4.67%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 at 06:35 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

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graph of T-Bull SA GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

May 6, 2020 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 1.000, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693147 trading days (~2750.6 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Inverse leverage: Positive returns increase volatility 318% more than negative returns

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.3623
6.79***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1185
10.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9265
269.27***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0902
-5.30***

Persistence:

1.000

Half-life:

693147 days